Essays and research notes on frontier AI evaluation, safety and policy, and on building AI for public institutions. https://miguelguerrero.eu/blog.html 2026-10-27T00:00:00.000Z Miguel Guerrero https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-human-in-the-loop.html 2026-10-27T00:00:00.000Z 2026-10-27T00:00:00.000Z

A civil servant caught CiudadanIA inventing a ministry because they had the expertise and the time to look. As AI takes on more actions, that kind of oversight cannot be assumed. Human–AI pairs often trail the better of the two working alone, time pressure cuts reviewers’ accuracy, and in SHADE-Arena the best monitor had to flag over 20% of harmless runs to catch 80% of sabotage. With interactive figures, a timed review exercise, and what to do about it.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-high-stakes-ai-adoption.html 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z 2026-10-08T00:00:00.000Z

Closing my AI work at the Spanish Prime Minister's Office: a broad effort to bring AI into the center of government, from adoption and applications to infrastructure and governance. Three of its pieces, which I led, designed and built, were selected following OECD review for the OECD.AI Policy Observatory. What the whole effort taught me about adopting AI where an error is not a bug but a public event.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-astra-fortress.html 2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z 2026-09-01T00:00:00.000Z

I ran GPT-6 Astra against FORTRESS, the national security and public safety benchmark, two days after release. The aggregate risk score is unremarkable. The log is not: the deployed system refuses in two different ways, and the benchmark treats them as opposites — deleting one kind from the sample, grading the other on a harm rubric. The judge then awarded four different scores to nineteen byte-identical refusals, including 6 out of 7 to a refusal that answers nothing. With interactive figures, and what all of it means for measuring manipulation.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-ai-policy-power.html 2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z 2026-07-30T00:00:00.000Z

The EU AI Act's biggest applicability date lands on Sunday — and most headlines still get it wrong. Why I built aipolicy.es from scratch: what actually changes on 2 August 2026, the systemic risks the GPAI Code of Practice already names, what METR's lengthening task horizons and Epoch's compute curves say about the decade ahead — and a dated, falsifiable prediction: evolution, revolution or disaster. Spain has assets but not yet a system, and Spanish is governance infrastructure, not an interface.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-recursive-self-improvement.html 2026-06-05T00:00:00.000Z 2026-06-05T00:00:00.000Z

Frontier AI is not yet recursively self-improving in the strong sense — but it is already inside the loop that builds the next system. A five-layer map of RSI, the evidence from METR, AISI, and the lab frameworks, and a seven-point agenda — including an AI Evaluation Corps for Europe and Spain.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-magnifica-humanitas.html 2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z 2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z

Pope Leo XIV is not asking us to choose between technology and humanity. He is asking who governs the infrastructure that is already reshaping work, truth, power, education, war, and freedom. Read from inside AI governance: a Babel-or-Nehemiah civilizational choice, the U.S./China capital asymmetry, and a seven-point Human First agenda for Europe and Spain.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-synthetic-citizens.html 2026-05-20T00:00:00.000Z 2026-05-20T00:00:00.000Z

Generative AI did not invent fake political participation. It transformed its economics. From the FCC's 18M fake net-neutrality comments to covert AI personas earning karma on r/ChangeMyView, the next wave will produce synthetic citizens that speak, argue and simulate communities. A proposal for democratic provenance — machines can help us listen, but they cannot be counted as the people.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-ai-swing-states-latam.html 2026-05-09T00:00:00.000Z 2026-05-09T00:00:00.000Z

Latin America will not decide the AI race by training the largest frontier model. It will decide it by choosing the rules of the ecosystem — procurement, compute, data centers, languages, and safety institutions. A proposal for a Latin American AI Swing States Compact.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-synthetic-personas-spain.html 2026-04-04T00:00:00.000Z 2026-04-04T00:00:00.000Z

Why I built spain-reference-personas-frontier — a synthetic reference population of 1M personas, 536K households, and 1,800 benchmark tasks — and how it became open infrastructure for better AI products, services, and public-interest systems for Spain.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-why-i-built-acogida.html 2026-04-03T00:00:00.000Z 2026-04-03T00:00:00.000Z

A free, multilingual, login-less tool launching the same week Spain opens a once-in-a-decade regularisation window. Why civic infrastructure — not walls, not rhetorical hugs — is what welcome actually looks like at 11:47 p.m.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-dopamine-driven-development.html 2026-04-02T00:00:00.000Z 2026-04-02T00:00:00.000Z

When the feedback loop between builder and model becomes frictionless, productivity can feel intoxicating. A reflection on vibe coding, supervision fatigue, and the habits needed to build with AI without letting the loop consume the builder.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-progress-is-a-stack.html 2026-04-01T00:00:00.000Z 2026-04-01T00:00:00.000Z

Four texts, four layers of AI progress, and why Europe's regulatory ambition means nothing without the institutional capacity to make it real — lessons from building AI inside Spain's government and democratizing AI education across 30+ cities.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-verification-economy.html 2026-03-01T00:00:00.000Z 2026-03-01T00:00:00.000Z

Drawing on Catalini, Hui & Wu's MIT Sloan analysis of AGI economics, a three-part exploration of the Measurability Gap, the Missing Junior Loop, and why the cost to verify -- not the cost to automate -- will define the next decade of organizational strategy.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-europe-ai-frontier.html 2026-02-04T00:00:00.000Z 2026-02-04T00:00:00.000Z

Drawing on RAND's AGI preparedness analysis, the Draghi competitiveness report, and Davos 2026, a call for Europe -- and Spain -- to embrace AI with the ingenuity, depth, and humanistic ambition that has defined our civilization at its best.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-med-llm-es.html 2026-02-03T00:00:00.000Z 2026-02-03T00:00:00.000Z

From broken models to balanced solutions: how LoRA fine-tuning, knowledge distillation, and DPO alignment taught me that 350 balanced examples beat 10,000 imbalanced ones — and that the ROJO bias was the most important finding of the project.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-ai-for-science.html 2026-02-02T00:00:00.000Z 2026-02-02T00:00:00.000Z

Mapping the landscape from Elicit and Semantic Scholar to FutureHouse's Robin, Ginkgo's autonomous labs, and the Genesis Mission. How AI is transforming scientific discovery -- with Promethean promise and Pandora's caution.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-ai-european-democracy.html 2026-02-01T00:00:00.000Z 2026-02-01T00:00:00.000Z

How AI reshapes European democracy -- from recommender systems and algorithmic governance failures to the EU's four-pillar regulatory architecture and AI-powered civic participation. 30+ academic references.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-ai-disinformation.html 2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z 2026-01-01T00:00:00.000Z

A technical deep dive into how diffusion models, voice cloning, and LLMs power synthetic disinformation -- and the policy frameworks, provenance standards, and AI-powered countermeasures that can protect democratic institutions.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-governance-advantage.html 2025-12-01T00:00:00.000Z 2025-12-01T00:00:00.000Z

The binding constraint for governments is no longer model access -- it is institutional capacity: evaluation, procurement, auditability, and adoption. How open-weight models and compute diplomacy are reshaping policy.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-democratizing-ai.html 2025-03-01T00:00:00.000Z 2025-03-01T00:00:00.000Z

The story of Saturdays.AI - from a single bootcamp to an international movement with 30K+ alumni and 500+ AI4Good projects. What we learned about making AI education accessible.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-enterprise-agents.html 2025-02-02T00:00:00.000Z 2025-02-02T00:00:00.000Z

Practical insights from building GenAI platforms across professional services, infrastructure, finance, and energy sectors. RAG architectures, LLM orchestration patterns, and what actually works in production.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-rag-industrial.html 2025-02-01T00:00:00.000Z 2025-02-01T00:00:00.000Z

Developing RAG systems for Industrial Engineering practice and PMO at a $70Bn energy company. Architecture decisions, chunking strategies, and evaluation frameworks.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-llm-products.html 2025-01-02T00:00:00.000Z 2025-01-02T00:00:00.000Z

Lessons from building an LLM-driven platform for training and talent selection at Tauniqo.AI. How we went from concept to funded startup in the AI gold rush.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-frontier-markets.html 2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z 2025-01-01T00:00:00.000Z

Reflections on advising Cloud technology product-market fit across Benin, France, and Rwanda. What emerging markets teach us about technology adoption and digital inclusion.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-ai-education-leadership.html 2024-10-01T00:00:00.000Z 2024-10-01T00:00:00.000Z

Key findings from a scoping review published in the Review of Education (BERA/Wiley), examining how AI is transforming the role of school leaders and reshaping educational decision-making.

https://miguelguerrero.eu/article-defense-ai.html 2024-09-01T00:00:00.000Z 2024-09-01T00:00:00.000Z

Defining and deploying AI use cases to strengthen operations in the defense and aerospace sector. Frameworks for identifying high-impact applications and NATO's evolving AI strategy.